Synopsis
In the ground pressure pattern today we see a saddle area moving northeast across our focus area. This contains a double folded occlusion that only manifests itself in the maritime boundary layer. A next weak barocliene zone is moving northeast across our country this afternoon. Tonight approaching from the west from a cold front belonging to a (also at 500 hPa strongly developed) low that travels Tuesday and Wednesday through the British Isles and the Netherlands southeast. The cold front will move up to and down to our country next night and Tuesday morning together with a rather sharp high trench east. Just before the cold front there is an old occlusion that merges with the cold front quite quickly. Behind the cold front we see later in the night and in the first half of Tuesday morning a weak trough move over the northern coastal area. Tuesday during the day passes a tractor back. An active low pressure area that moves north of England in the evening (together with the altitude layer) OZO-wards later in the night to Wednesday reaches the northwest of our country. A corresponding twisted occlusion reaches the west coast at the end of Tuesday night. The coldest upper air passes through the first part of Wednesday along with the core of the altitude layer our country.

Model assessment
For the St, nebula and fog in the maritime boundary layer at the double folded occlusion Pascal gives a reasonable picture based on Ha43. This afternoon's convection in the southeast and east is shown by both Ha43 and EC, with the usual differences in detail. The precipitation activity of the next night during a cold front passage seems to be far above us, although we do see activation above the southwest due to the inbound fairly sharp short-golded trench. Above Germany, the front really seems to activate. Northerly we also see a more active part of the cold front (and old occlusion) that moves in the night to Tuesday across the far northwest of the FIR northeast. Tuesday afternoon and evening gradually the gradual activation of the shower activity is shown by both models. Attention are the active showers at the occlusion that later Tuesday evening reaches the west coast. The combination of PVA at the front of the altitude layer, coastal convergence and warm seawater for the west coast ensures that the showers will unpack with very likely thunderstorms. Especially HA43 shows strong hours in the west sometimes more than 20 mm, local water pollution is then conceivable in the night to Wednesday.Attention

Wind
Today in Harmony exports on the southern North Sea 6 Bft, in HA43 there is still a weak signal for 7 Bft on the southern edge of the FIR. Tuesday afternoon at showers above land in the Harmony-export outliers up to about 30 kn. Tuesday evening and in the first half of the night to Wednesday in the southern North Sea on approach from the occlusion 6-7 Bft. The weak signal for heavy winds in HA43 remains off the southwest coast, and the wind is parallel to the coast. Above the west of the country in the event of showers, the winds are limited to about 30 kn.

View
With the folded occlusion local nebula or even fog above the North Sea. Further outside showers good visual conditions. In the heavier showers later on Tuesday and in the night to Wednesday moderate to poor visibility conditions.

Temperature
Differences in output are caused by differences in clouds. In areas with a high level of clearance a little more daily than in exports.

Cloud
Above the north of the FIR a fragmented band with St-clouding at the double folded occlusion. Also for the southwest coast there is still local fog/St that moves north. Overland today, cumulative clouds. During the afternoon of the southwest from some more Sc clouds on approach from the next baroque zone. In the southeast and east then some Cbs with peaks up to about FL250 in the far east in Ha43. At the cold front not too massive stratiform clouds, in the southeast perhaps a single embedded Cb. Tuesday afternoon cumulative clouds and possibly a single Cb with tops up to approx. FL230. Tuesday afternoon and evening at the active occlusion a mixture of convective and layered clouds, embedded Cbs with tops until FL300.

Precipitation
This afternoon in the southeast and east some showers. CAPE 1000-2000 J/kg, approximately 15 kn. Local falls about 10 mm, but due to these showers moving no large precipitation amounts. There is also a chance of thunderstorm. The cold front produces some rain in the northwest of the FIR on the North Sea. Above land we see little activity, only in the second half of the night we see above southeast and east activation with possibly a single shower. On the weak trough later in the night and in the first half of Tuesday morning we see a single shower in the northern coastal area. Tuesday in the back in also local convection, CAPE locally up to 1000 J/kg. Schering is 10-15 kn. Both during Tuesday evening's occlusion and the subsequent convective system mainly above the sea and on the coast (where CAPE up to 1000 J/kg) a convective component. Sometimes inland, there is still strong convective activity in output, possible (coast) convergence or small-scale PVA forces. Largest shower activity in the (north)western half of the country in the night to Wednesday. Regional than 20-40 mm in 6 hours time, possibly locally some more.

Synopsis
A low-pressure area is on Wednesday, along with the altitude layer over our country and is already moving towards Germany. Thursday, the altitude is slowly moving further east to Eastern Europe. Above Western Europe, from Thursday onwards, we see the construction of an altitude back with a high pressure area extending Friday from the Norwegian Sea, via the North Sea towards Central Europe. With a southern (southeastern) current, much warmer air is supplied. On Sunday we gradually come under the influence of a layer above the British Islands. Later on Sunday or in the night to Monday, there may already be an active frontal zone that drives out the warm air. After the weekend, the low slowly moves east through the North Sea region. In the even longer term the current is weakly sunny, sometimes we can get a little more influence from a high pressure runner.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Until Friday we see a reasonable consensus in the ensemble. Striking from the previous runs is the reduced chance of warmth on Sunday and Monday. The warmest day now seems to be Saturday, in the east Sunday. The transition to a less hot weather type now seems to take place around Sunday and could be accompanied by strong convection, see also the fairly high dew points and associated CAPE values. In a number of members the heat is extended by one day to the Monday. Most EPS members now show a variable type of weather after the weekend with a fairly large precipitation potential and maximum temperatures around the long-term average, the minima are probably above the long-term average. In the even longer term we see a southwest current in the majority of the ensemble. Some members in the ensemble show some high pressure influence, the probability of precipitation gradually decreases to about 50%.

Multi-day Summary
Wednesday regular showers and ceilings around 22°C. From Thursday gradually dry, more sunny and rising temperatures to summer values from Friday. During the weekend, there is an increasing risk of a rain or thunderstorm.

EPS Period Summary
High chance (about 80%) of a variable weather type with regular showers. Temperatures are probably around the long-term average. Towards the end of the forecast period, the probability of precipitation gradually decreases.

Valid from Wednesday 16 July to Monday 28 July