Synopsis
A low-pressure area above the Atlantic Ocean moves ONO and travels north of Scotland by day on Thursday towards the Norwegian west coast. The heat front today draws between 13 and 19 UTC from southwest to northeast across our country. At and after the heat front, the air in a southwest current becomes considerably damper. The ONO-WZO-oriented cold front will be lying somewhere above the north of the country next night and Thursday morning and will be dragging there until mid-Thursday morning due to wave formation southwest of Ireland. From the end of the morning, the front will move north as a heat front and leave the northeast of the FIR mid-Thursday evening. With a southern current, we end up in guidance line in significantly warmer and drier air.

Model assessment
Largely speaking, there are few differences between EC and Ha43. There are still some small differences with regard to the lingering front above the north. Conditions just north of the front are significantly better than south. On the other hand, Ha43 is remarkably cold again in the rain compared to EC, which is probably due to too little radiation in Ha43, we follow EC. Ha43 shows the lower clouds better than EC as usual. Moreover, EC lets Thursday during the day clear it from the south far too quickly, we follow Ha43.Attention

Wind
EC and Harmony are fairly consistent. On passage of the flat tractor back temporarily less wind. This afternoon and tonight in the warm sector an increase in the wind by 6-7 Bft in the coastal districts. Chance of a heavy wind blow along the west coast is negligible. Thursday only 6 Bft left in the coastal districts. The 6 Bft in the northern coastal districts disappears tonight north of the dragging front, in the southwest coastal districts south of the front the 6 Bft remains present until Thursday afternoon.

View
Good, in frontal precipitation moderate to poor, especially in drizzle. North of the dragging front good views.

Temperature
For today and tomorrow EC gives a better indication than Ha43. Thursday in the south possibly already 23°C.

Cloud
At the heat front mostly stratiform clouds with also formation of some St-clouds due to rain. In the warm sector above the northern half of the country forming a more contiguous area with stratus, tonight in the northeast even below 500 ft. These stratus conditions will remain at the dragging front above the north of the country, just north of the front only Sc cloud. During the course of Thursday from the south, rising clouds, the real clearances only seem to extend over the country from the night to Friday from the south.

Precipitation
On approach from the heat front already stratiform precipitation. Near the dragging front tonight and Thursday during the day persistent precipitation, due to Coalescence a combination of drizzle and light rain. In the south, it stays almost dry from this afternoon. In the course of Thursday afternoon, the precipitation activity near the front is gradual.

Synopsis
On Friday we find ourselves on the slope of a high above the Alpine region that travels east towards Eastern Europe, making the current south to southwest. This brings warmer and tropical air. A low pressure area lies Saturday and Sunday at the British Isles. The wavy front of the low pressure area then reaches our country on Sunday 21 September and does not leave until Monday. Next, at the beginning of next week, a high-pressure area will be built above northern Europe, while an altitude layer will be drawn near the Bay of Biscay. The subtle interaction between these two systems and their position vis-à-vis the Netherlands creates an increasing uncertainty in the expectation.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The warm-up of the next few days is clear in EPC. On Friday and Saturday, the highest limits are reached where it becomes 25°C in a large part of the country, and in the southeast temperatures can be reached around 28°C. On Saturday the chance of a rain or thunderstorm from the west increases, later on Sunday these (thunderstorm) showers seem to move away to Germany. CAPE values on Saturday are likely to reach between 500-1000 J/kg in the north and around 2000 J/kg in the southeast. Also there seems to be a lot of effective shear, the operational run gives about 30-40 kn effective wind shearing between 0-6 km. It's still a few days, but this is definitely a situation to keep an eye on. The question is whether the convection occurs from the ground, if not, is therefore significantly less effective. After passing through the cold front, it is uncertain what the influence of the tangling height layer will be. On the flank of this can the cold front at altitude in a fairly large part of the EPS members a few more days of waves to above the Netherlands, which translates into a persistent large probability of precipitation next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Multi-day Summary
Sunny periods with Friday and Saturday in many places summer temperatures, especially in the south. During the weekend chance of some heavy rain or thunderstorms. From Sunday cooler and variable.

EPS Period Summary
From time to time rain or some showers, but also regular space for the sun. The temperature is probably near the long-term average.

Valid from Friday 19 September to Wednesday 01 October