Synopsis
An extended high pressure area with the centre northwest of our FIR gradually moves to the southern North Sea, to move Saturday evening and in the night to Sunday via the German Bend towards Denmark. The current remains north-east, but with a gradually increasing eastern component. This gradually leads to dryer and warmer continental polar air. On the north-east flank of the high, a weak heat front travels south across the North Sea, before becoming stationary to the north-east of the rugged axis. The question is to what extent this damper air will reach the northeast of the FIR.

Model assessment
The spread of the Cu to Sc was better in EC than in Harmony exports. This will probably be the case this afternoon. At the heat front we see low clouds above the north of the North Sea, currently only closely follow the satellite images. There are few measuring points so it is difficult to tell how bad the cloud and vision conditions are there. The fact is that both Harmony and EC calculate an area with low stratus in that angle. To the south of the heat front there is also a persistent and large area of fog in the Harmony-export, but this is not present and we do not honour it. The greatest uncertainty is whether the stratus will reach the northeast of the FIR, which is happening in Harmony and not in EC. We'll take it into account, but only for the sea.Attention

Wind
Due to thermal effects the wind on the west coast increases in the afternoon. This is good for Harmony output. Above land the wind is strong in the afternoon, also the average wind speed is higher than in many places than in the export.

View
Good eyes. Some ground fog tonight. In the night to Saturday in the north (east) and a greater chance of fog banks. HarmonEps exports are not very realistic there, based on the unrealistic fog field in Harmony exports reaching the north.

Temperature
More daily movements than in exports, especially the minima are significantly lower in clearances.

Cloud
During the day Cu spreads out in the afternoon under an inversion, to dissolve in the evening. Saturday it seems too dry for spreading Cu. Furthermore in any case today a chance of low clouds / stratus in the northeast of the FIR.

Precipitation
None.

Synopsis
A high pressure area above the North Sea creates a blocked flow pattern above a large part of Europe, in the middle of a large-scale and persistent meander of the jet current (which lies above southern Europe). Above South-West and Eastern Europe there are round-twisted altitude layers. In our environment this results in a (north) eastern flow and the supply of heated and dehydrated air from the continent. After next Monday, we will have a large height back whose centre of gravity will be again northwest of our environment. This will give the current a larger northern component and will give the air species a more maritime polar origin. In many of the members, the large-scale pattern tends to be an omega block, but it is uncertain to what extent the current remains in our anticyclonaal.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Until the middle of next week, it is likely to remain dry (80-90%), with which the precipitation deficit will continue to increase and there is talk of persistent drought. As the supply becomes more continental there will initially be a lot of sun, but in the course of next week the more maritime supply will result in more clouds. Only from the middle of next week do we see in part of the ensemble the possibility for a more cyclonal current on the flank of the (omega) blockade and/or near an altitude layer. This results in slowly increasing precipitation opportunities but with about 30% at the end of the period it is still less than climatology. In terms of temperature, the expectation is more difficult and depending on the degree of cloudiness and wind direction, overall I consider a fairly normal temperature most likely. The fog opportunities remain rather small due to the often pervasive wind, but the risk of heavy wind blows is also very small.

Multi-day Summary
Gradually more sun and warmer, with from the weekend afternoon temperatures (clear) above 20 degrees. It stays dry.

EPS Period Summary
Initially sunny and dry, later more clouds and gradually a small chance of a shower. The temperature forecast is uncertain, there is a large spread around the long-term average.

Valid from Saturday 10 May to Thursday 22 May