Synoptic assessment of weather models

Every day, KNMI meteorologists analyze and interpret the results of the Hirlam, ECMWF and Harmonie weather models. Below you can read their findings, particularly educational material for those who want to understand more about the weather on the maps and in the graphs.
 
Please do mind: due to the dynamic nature of this information, we use a machine translation, so please mind the possible translation errors.

Short-term to + 48 hours | Guidance multi-day model review
 



Models overall rating up to +48 hours

Published: 31/03/2026 06.14 uur LT
 
Guidance model assessment for the Netherlands, the Dutch coastal waters and the North Sea, based on the HIRLAM run of 12 UTC and the other mentioned models and guides with associated run time.

Synopsis
On the north-east flank of a high west of the Bay of Biscay, a north-western flow of maritime polar air leads. Initially this current is still slightly cyclonal, but in the course of today more and more a back is built up above the North Sea, which further reduces the current. A low by Iceland is moving northeast. Along with north-south oriented heat front over the Irish Sea, it's heading east and reaching the far west of our focus area (in the back) by the end of the afternoon. In the night to Wednesday, this weak front comes to a standstill due to pressure increases over Germany near the west coast. Wednesday during the day, this weak front slowly recedes back into the North Sea. During the period, a ridge builds up above the British Isles and slowly comes out from the northwest on Wednesday.

Model assessment
The models are synoptic. Because of the weak cyclonity, some new moods are likely to arise tonight. Through the daily corridor, the showers activate inland. Ha43 looks reasonable but probably doesn't show enough lighter moods. The heat front in Ha43 at the front has more Sc-cloud than EC. We assume that EC calculates a little too little cloud, but Ha43 may be a little too much again. To the east of the front both models indicate in wide clearances fog or St-cloud on deck.Attention

Wind
No details.

View
This morning inland first local ground mist. During the night to Wednesday in clearings in many places forming fog. It is the question of how far west this fog will occur, the greatest chance is for the eastern half. Wednesday will solve the fog in the second half of the morning. At the heat front there is also a chance of reduced visibility in mist and drizzle, above the sea especially in the north a chance of fog.

Temperature
In the night to Wednesday inland a (very) low chance of freezing smoothness at sensitive points without soil heat such as a bridge. This depends on clouds and fog that can dampen the cooling.

Cloud
At the Tcu/CB peaks up to approximately 9000 feet, decreasing during the day of the northwest by approach of the ridge. At the weak front St-Opportunity. Further on Wednesday at lifting fog first still regional St.

Precipitation
Some showers, single cell or multicell, see the model assessment. At and for the ground heat front chance of a little drizzle or light rain.

valid until Wednesday 01 April 2026 24.00 local time



 

Guidance multi-day

Published: 31/03/2026 04.54 uur LT
 
Long term assessment by meteorologist

Synopsis
In the coming period, we are facing an increasing meandering western current over the Atlantic. In addition, the air pressure is relatively low near Iceland and we often see an outskirts of an Atlantic high above the Bay of Biscay towards Central Europe, which occasionally forms a new center of high pressure. In our area the light is variable with occasional front passage. At the beginning of next week, a somewhat more powerful ridge of altitude is temporarily building up above Central Europe, with a deeper south to southwest current and the supply of rather warm air. Tuesday 7 April seems to be the hottest day, after which the low pressure influence is likely to increase again with falling temperatures.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The next few days there will be regular fronts. Early next week, the weather will stabilize temporarily and a south-to-southwest current will begin. Tuesday seems to be the hottest day, with lots of sunshine and maximum temperatures that can reach especially in the east between 20 and 24°C. Depending on the details, there is a chance of rain and thunderstorms during the day, especially in the east of the country. After Tuesday there seems to be less warm air flowing in, but perhaps the cold front continues to slow down and Wednesday will also be a hot day. In the longer term, the temperature is close to the long-term average with frequent showers and increasing uncertainty in the location of the pressure areas.

Multi-day Summary
Lightly variable with temperatures close to the long-term average. From the weekend, keep it down.

EPS Period Summary
Tuesday, April 7. After that probably less hot, but initially still temperatures that are higher than usual for the time of the year. A few showers are arranged.

Valid from Thursday 02 April to Tuesday 14 April

 

 

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