Synopsis
A complex layer north of Scotland slowly moves north and a south-west current leads maritime polar air across our environment. The polar front is tonight south of our country and continues to drag. Under the influence of a low pressure area moving northeast over the British Isles on Tuesday, the polar front moves over the country Tuesday afternoon as a heat front from south to north. Afterwards our country (temporarily) ends up in soft air, after which the cold front along with it reaches the northwest of the FIR on Tuesday evening and travels southeast over our country in the night to Wednesday and Wednesday morning. The front is then to the south of our country, and on Wednesday afternoon and evening as a heat front again northwards over our country.

Model assessment
The models give a synoptic and consistent picture. There are differences in the boundary layer. The warm air that is brought over the snow remains causes on an extensive scale mist, mist and St-cloud. This is particularly the case in the north and near the cold IJsselmeer. This shows both models. Harmony is the best current, EC lacks fog. The bad conditions can last until noon, only with the (first) passage of the heat front it gets better. The passage from the cold front in the night to Wednesday gives in Harmony much lower St than in EC, we follow Harmony. The northward migration of the heat front Wednesday during the day is accompanied by St on deck, much lower than in EC. Harmony seems a bit more realistic here too. Furthermore, Har43 still calculates a snow deck in many places on Tuesday; in the middle and north the model still gives 10-15 cm locally. There is hardly any melting, which is unrealistic. EC makes more snow melt away, which is more realistic. However, there are few differences in the 2 meter temperatures.Attention

Wind
On approach to the cold front Tuesday evening possibly occasionally 6 Bft above sea.

View
See also model assessment. Especially in the warm sector and in the heat fronts moderate to bad and chance of fog. Harmony is much more splashy with fog than EC, but is probably closer to the truth. Also because the view can go down due to melting snow on Tuesday. Also in precipitation moderate,

Temperature
Models are fairly similar and can be followed. Focus is on the strong cooling off Wednesday afternoon and evening in the northern half in clearances behind the cold front (or for passage of the heat front). T2m then comes below zero until mid-night to Thursday and probably the road temperatures will also come below zero (road deck model does not go that far). Also, the roads are probably still wet from the precipitation of the cold front.

Cloud
See also model assessment. In the warm sector, near the heat front and on the cold front on an extensive scale St.

Precipitation
Especially on the fronts of rain. The differences between the models are not large.

Synopsis
A large-scale altitude trench is located northwest of our environment and remains there for a long time. At the Earth's surface there are low pressure areas above the Atlantic Ocean that follow a predominantly north-east course. Related fronts reach our environment occasionally. In the long run (from about 18 Jan onwards) we see that high pressure above Eastern Europe has more influence on the weather in our environment.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The temperature is around or slightly above the normal with initially another variable weather view. The last runs show a tendency towards a less variable image in the days after because of the building high. Precipitational chances go back to about 30%. We do see that the air is getting colder again and the temperature is going to be around or slightly below normal with small chances of light frost in the night from the weekend onwards (20% chance). By the way, this can also happen next week on Thursday's night if in the night a weak back passes with clearances.

Multi-day Summary
Cloudy and occasionally rainy. The temperature is around or slightly above the long-term average.

EPS Period Summary
Occasionally rain with temperatures around or slightly below the long-term average.

Valid from Wednesday 14 January to Monday 26 January