Synopsis
A large high-pressure area extends from Eastern Europe to the southwest of the British Isles and has centres above England and Poland. Between the two centres, a weak NO-ZW oriented occlusion front is present above the North Sea. This front is now above the northwest of the FIR and continues southeast. Later tonight, this front reaches the far northwest of our country, to move in the night towards the middle. Tomorrow during the day, this weak frontal zone continues to drag above the middle of the country and gradually dissolves. At altitude a further developing cold well runs into the front, which can then possibly provide some activation. Until tomorrow evening, the rugos is above the middle and south, on Monday it will lie south of our country and the current will be (south) west. Monday morning, an inactive heat front reaches the northwest of the FIR.

Model assessment
A focus for the coming days remains the border layer above land in the night and morning. There is very little wind and in clearances there is easy fog. The question is how thick the frontal cloud is at the occlusion. In Ha43 it is rather thick and the Sc is also somewhat wider around the ground front, which makes there hardly any fog in Ha43. However, EC draws up a fragmented picture with also clearances, in which fog forms, especially in a strip just in front of the front. Experience shows that Ha43 often (just) calculates too little and EC too much clearances, so the truth must be a bit in the middle. If there is a thicker fog layer, it may take until noon tomorrow before it is resolved everywhere. It is possible that the fog will temporarily pass into stratus. At the cold well we saw earlier some activation of precipitation in the models but the last runs do not show that anymore. If precipitation falls from the front, the low peaks will be some light rain or drizzle due to coalescence, if the trough triggers Cb's from approx. 6000 ft with peaks up to approx. FL200. In the night to Monday the fog will be somewhat more limited to the south, as the gradient continues to increase north.Attention

Wind
Monday in the north of the FIR possibly 6 Bft.

View
Tonight, the formation of mist and fog banks, possibly also the formation of mist tonight, although it is unclear where exactly that will happen. If this layer gets thick enough, it may take until noon tomorrow before it is resolved everywhere. In the night to Monday again great fog opportunities, but only in the south or the southern half. In precipitation possibly moderate.

Temperature
Ha43 is quite easy to follow, although the daily course is often slightly larger. Further the afternoons stay warmer than usual.

Cloud
At the occlusion chance of some low Sc, above land tonight also stratus, possibly below 500 vt. In the morning a thicker mist layer could also temporarily pass into stratus. At the heat front Monday chance for low clouds, as can be seen in both models.

Precipitation
At the frontal zone local light rain or drizzle and a small chance of a shower. No precipitation at the heat front on Monday.

Synopsis
Until Tuesday 6 October the weather is under the influence of a high pressure area and the jet current has a northern position. In the course of Wednesday 7 October, a wavy cold front will pass which activates on approach of a deep altitude trench, the axis of which passes on Thursday 8 October. Afterwards a strong meandering western current creates a slightly variable weather type.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Until Tuesday 6 October there is little spread in the ensemble. The high pressure dominates our environment. The current is generally weak and with seaborne landings combined with clearances there is a fairly high risk of fog in the night and morning (early) until Wednesday. During the day it stays rather warm for early October. The wavy cold front of later on Wednesday opens a cooler weather type with daytime temperatures near the climate average. From time to time, frontal zones or troughs pass by with every day about 50% chance of 1 mm of rain or more. From Sunday 11 October there will be signals for possibly more autumny weather with more wind. From Monday 12 October, some calculations sometimes show very heavy wind blows in the northwest coastal area, but this is still very low.

Multi-day Summary
Quiet and mainly dry autumn weather. In the night and (early) morning chance of fog. Daytime periods with sun. It stays pretty warm for early October. From Wednesday it will change and the afternoon temperature will gradually reach the climate average.

EPS Period Summary
There is about 60% chance of a variable weather type with sometimes some rain or a shower, but also regular sunshine. There is about 40% chance of a mainly dry weather type.

Valid from Monday 05 October to Saturday 17 October