Synopsis
A high pressure belt stretches from Scandinavia to our surroundings and slowly pulls east. There is still (very) cold air. Some occlusion remains (recognizable by cloud fields) belonging to the now filled layer 'Goretti' are still near our country but are becoming less significant. At the end of the day, an Atlantic low pressure area is just northwest of Scotland, and slowly continues northeast on Monday. Related N-Z oriented heat front reaches our country later in the evening and is followed by a heat front occlusion at a short distance. The occlusion leaves the east early in the morning. Just south of the country is the warm sector, in the cold front above the northwest of France a wave hits the country in the afternoon. From that moment on, the front continues to drag above the southeastern half of the country. A weak, NO-ZW oriented occlusion will later in the afternoon and evening lie above the western FIR area.

Model assessment
There are a number of points of interest. First of all, the low temperatures that are already occurring. Code yellow is off in the northeast due to its low temperature. Models correspond to the area in which this should occur (northeast). Furthermore there is also fog possible this night, which is also indicative in both models. Recently we see this area also developing in Germany, this should also happen to us in the next few hours, we see the views carefully declining. It could lead to dense fog, we should closely monitor for a possible code yellow for that. The main focus is the thaw attack that takes place in the night to Monday. The precipitation reaches the far southwest in the second half of the evening (timing is similar to yesterday). There it will simply consist of rain, but a little further inland the precipitation winters of character with especially in the eastern half becomes a clear signal for a zone with snow and also freezing rain. The latter is of course very important in relation to warnings. Both models show a clear signal on freezing rain. It's a classic death strike. EC opportunities are between 40 and 70% in the north-east/northeast half. This is also clearly reflected in the road surface model, with a more western boundary. In Zeeland and a large part of South Holland road temperatures appear to be above zero at the incoming precipitation. By the end of the morning, the entire southwest half should be above zero. Subtle differences in temperature development over the next 24 hours will of course determine the course of this thaw attack. In the Tskin there is some difference, where Harmony shows a slightly slower rise in temperature, which also has consequences for the timing and duration of the freezing rain. In addition, for the slippery situation it matters whether in the northeast, before the freezing zone actually falls out of some snow. After passage of the frontal zones we see a very humid profile with possible stratus on the deck in the north in Harmony. EC is a little more positive in that sense. However, given the still cold ground, we tend towards the Harmony scenario.Attention

Wind
On approach of the heat front strongly increasing south wind, 6-7 Bft along the coast and local 8 outgate, after passage of the occlusion decreasing to 6 Bft. No major differences between EC and Har43. Due to the landing wind no (code yellow) warning criteria are met.

View
Good views, in the northeast during the night possibly bad by fog. During the day we expect this to resolve fairly quickly. In winter precipitation moderate to poor views, even Monday morning with the flow of warm air over the melting snow it may become nebulous or foggy.

Temperature
Tonight in many places moderate to severe frost, the latter especially in the northeast and east of the country (near the rugos). The temperature of feeling is there in the night and morning below -15°C, for this code is yellow. Since there are still snow remains in many places and the temperature remains below zero, there is also a code yellow for local smoothness. In the night to Monday from the west rising temperatures. In the southwest it is already above zero when the precipitation arrives, in the northeast this can take until the (early) morning. In EC the temperature rises a little faster than in Har43. This is a focus for precipitation (see model assessment).

Cloud
Especially in the southwest some cloud fields due to the occlusion remains. This is currently more prominent than the models display. During the day, this zone could also lead to some cloud fields with a base at St/Sc level, especially in the west and in the middle of the country. A point of interest is possible ice setting in (and possibly below) the Sc/TCu cloud above the north of the FIR (tops 7000-8000 vt), the peaks of which are gradually getting lower in the night. At the heat front and the occlusion on Monday morning we follow Har43 (extensively St). Also in the frontal zone continuing chance of St/Sc.

Precipitation
Above the north of the FIR we see some light rain and (wet) snow showers, which also descend quickly by subsidia in the back. At the heat front in the west rain, inland first (short-lived) snow and possibly freezing rain, see model assessment. Also in the heat frontocclusion rain, the same goes for the wavy cold front.

Synopsis
An Atlantic layer near Ireland causes a southern current in our vicinity. There's still cold air coming in. A heat front passes the country Monday night and morning after which considerably softer air is brought in. Then, on a large scale, there will be a high trench above the British Isles, disturbances can reach our country at regular intervals. However, due to the western position of the low pressure regions, the current remains predominantly southern. Later in the period (from 20 Jan onwards) there are some solutions in which the low pressure regions follow a slightly southern course with an eastern flow and supply of colder air.

Model assessment and uncertainties
In the night to Monday still cold air and temperatures, especially in the east, are still well below zero. From the west, however, temperatures slowly rise above zero. In all members, there is now a successful thaw attack. Precipitation species is a focus with inland probably first snow, temporarily passing in freezing rain and then rain. The probability of snow and freezing is greatest in the east (EC:30-60%), an important focus. After passage we no longer see winter weather during the rest of the period, except for a single night with light frost, even though that chance is not greater than 10%.

Multi-day Summary
Sunday probably dry and very cold, with in the northeast chance of persistent fog. Feeling temperature drops to about -15 degrees. In the night to Monday a thaw attack that will succeed. This then creates snow, which may turn into freezing rain. After Monday the cold disappears, we have average temperatures and rain falls from time to time.

EPS Period Summary
Variable and average temperatures.

Valid from Monday 12 January to Saturday 24 January