Synopsis
A centre of a high pressure area is located at 00 UTC above the North Sea north of the Netherlands. The current is therefore northeast and leads polar air. A small low pressure area that is particularly well developed in the higher air layers will travel south over the western North Sea Monday afternoon and evening. Around the layer are several old frontal systems. In the night to Tuesday, a high above the north of the British Isles is formed, moving north of the North Sea. The current then becomes eastern with us and is clearly increasing in strength.

Model assessment
The large-scale pattern of clouds and precipitation on the east side of Monday's height layer is consistent in the output. The precipitation potential is further reduced at the northwest altitude. In the far northwest, the probability of 0.3 mm/h is still up to 50%. On the west side of the frontal system that rotates around the height layer is a lot of stratus. This Monday evening may also reach the far northwest of the FIR, but the worst conditions seem to remain west of the FIR.Attention

Wind
Until Monday during the day little wind, which causes thermal effects to play a role. From Monday night, the gradient is increasing. In the night to Tuesday and especially Tuesday during the day possible NO 6 Bft.

View
Moderate to poor visibility near the frontal zone above England will probably remain just west of the FIR on Monday.

Temperature
Harmony output is useful, locally even more daily activity than in export (low wind, high radiation).

Cloud
Monday mainly high and high clouds. In the frontal zone above the sea St, possibly just reaches the west of the FIR.

Precipitation
The precipitation pattern for the frontal systems and the altitude layer of Monday is usable, most precipitation falls outside port.

Synopsis
Above the eastern Atlantic is a ridge with a high pressure core on the ground near the British Islands. It extends northeast to above the North Sea. At the end of the week, it travels high to the Baltic Sea region or Central Europe, making our current south-east or south-east. On and after the weekend, a large-scale high-trail over the eastern Atlantic, with its influence sometimes reaching above the North Sea area. Saturday passes a cold front, which for some time is stationary above the west of Germany. The axis of the blockade is usually about 40° W.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The probability that the temperature at the end of the week and the weekend will become clearly supernormal is now about 80%. In the MOS the Tmax is even higher than in the DMO with Friday a 50% percentile of 22-25°C. The probability of precipitation increased significantly on Saturday and especially Sunday, to 40 and 60%. The likelihood of thunderstorms seems small (in most of the Netherlands 10%, in the southeast 20%.). The precipitation is probably caused by waves in the front that lie above the east of the Netherlands or the west of Germany. After the weekend there is a preference for a southwest current on the east slope of the high trench, although the spread is large. The spread in the temperature forecast is increasing significantly, with a clearly below normal temperature in about 20% of the members and a clearly above normal temperature in about 20%. The probability of precipitation is around 30%

Multi-day Summary
First sunny with a big rise in temperature. Friday and Saturday it will be 20-25 °C in most places. In the weekend there will be clouds with about 50% chance of rain.

EPS Period Summary
Occasional weather with about 40% chance of precipitation every day. The uncertainty in the temperature forecast is increasing greatly.

Valid from Wednesday 29 April to Monday 11 May