Synopsis
A strong southern current initially leads to cold air. A complex low just west of Scotland will move north in the coming day. Related N-Z oriented heat front is above the west and moves east over the country in the night. At a short distance follows a heat frontocclusion. The occlusion leaves the east early in the morning. Just southeast of our country continues to drag the polar front, and from time to time it has wave formation which sometimes extends the front over the southeast of our country. Tuesday during the day, the next layer reaches the southwest of England, lifting the polar front as a heat front and moving north over our country.

Model assessment
The precipitation at the heat front is of course the main focus with the code orange for freezing rain. The current position and the position of the precipitation calculated by the models is very similar. At the moment we actually see liquid precipitation on a frozen road surface in the west (except Zeeland). In the west there is also some wet snow, combi precipitation intensity and even more dry air makes the vertical profile still lie around zero degrees. We are currently seeing that the ground temperatures in the southwest are starting to rise gently. Wet bulb temperature is mostly above zero. This is still in line with the various models. Tonight is a matter of monitoring current events. Due to the strong winds, temperatures in the middle and west in particular rise fairly smoothly (probably according to EC output) and the worst slipperyness is left for the morning rush. In the northeast the smoothness can continue during the morning rush, then it disappears everywhere. During and after passage of the heat front occlusion we see St. Due to the strong wind (especially on Mondays), the base is probably not as low as in Har43 which lowers the base on a large scale in the north on deck. On Tuesday the wind decreases, but Har43 still calculates a snow cover of 5-10 cm throughout the country. In EC this melts away much faster, and is still a few cm in the northeast, which is more realistic. As a result, the probability of a base on deck, with the exception of the northern half, is likely to be lower than in the Har43 exports, but a category lower than in EC exports. In the vertical profiles of this model we also clearly see a (almost) saturated layer to the ground, until passage of the recurring heat front on Tuesday.Attention

Wind
Lots of wind from a southerly direction, 7-8 Bft. Also above land a rather powerful wind, this may have an impact if there is a hypothermia. During the day declining winds, in coastal areas there is occasionally 6 Bft until Tuesday.

View
On approach to the heat front, and behind it mostly moderate, precipitation poor, especially when snow falls. In the north/northeast it probably remains nebulous throughout the period, and there is a chance of fog by St on deck.

Temperature
As soon as the front enters and the wind continues to increase, we see few differences between the models. EC increases the temperature a little faster, given the situation with strong winds this is realistic. However, a focus on possible hypothermia in the northeast. After passage of the heat front occlusion ascending to well above zero.

Cloud
Sc/Ac cloud. At the fronts falling cloud base and Monday morning from the west off on extensive scale St. In the north above the melting snow, and on the lee side of large cold water areas such as the IJsselmeer and in the Wadden region possibly sinking down to deck (see model assessment). These bad conditions remain present until after passing the recurring heat front on Tuesday.

Precipitation
At the frontal zone rain in Zeeland, elsewhere freezing rain (undercooled precipitation or rain on a frozen surface). In the northeast the ice can be preceded by light snow. Quantities approximately 3-5 mm. Also in the west there is sometimes some mention of (wet) snow. After passing the heat front occlusion persistent possibility of drizzle (through sliding hot air), and also (more intensive) rain at the wavy front and the recurring heat front.

Synopsis
A large-scale altitude trench is located northwest of our environment and remains there for a long time. At the Earth's surface there are low pressure areas above the Atlantic Ocean that follow a predominantly north-east course. Related fronts reach our environment occasionally. In the long run (from about 18 Jan onwards) we see that high pressure above Eastern Europe has more influence on the weather in our environment.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The temperature is around or slightly above the normal with initially another variable weather view. The last runs show a tendency towards a less variable image in the days after because of the building high. Precipitational chances go back to about 30%. We do see that the air is getting colder again and the temperature is going to be around or slightly below normal with small chances of light frost in the night from the weekend onwards (20% chance). By the way, this can also happen next week on Thursday's night if in the night a weak back passes with clearances.

Multi-day Summary
Cloudy and occasionally rainy. The temperature is around or slightly above the long-term average.

EPS Period Summary
Occasionally rain with temperatures around or slightly below the long-term average.

Valid from Wednesday 14 January to Monday 26 January