Synopsis
A strong south-west current caused by a low pressure area near Scotland leads maritime polar air. A weak short-golf trough above the southeast leaves the country soon. A large-scale high trench reaches us today during the day, with a short-golded trough passing in the afternoon. In the night to Friday, coastal convergence occurs from the west of Zeeland to Groningen. In the morning, it travels east with a flow gradually sweeping west. In the course of Friday afternoon, the southwest builds up a back over our surroundings, both at altitude and on the ground. On Friday evening, the axis of this back lies above the west of Germany and the current turns over our surroundings towards a southern direction.

Model assessment
Tonight, instability gradually increases upon approach of the high trench. Especially with/for the passage of the short-gold high trench this afternoon, combined with the daily course, there is a risk of deep convection. Especially in the southeast half there is also quite a lot of jig under a NO-ZW oriented jet streak. The various exports (LFD) give a clear indication of thunderstorm, with the centre of gravity above the east and southeast (code yellow). After passage of the short-wave altitude trench decrease in the shower activity (what drier air and a subtle inversion around or just below FL100). However, we are still below the large-scale high trench with cold upper air, so a single shower with thunderstorm remains possible. In the night to Friday and Friday morning especially at the convergence line showers again with thunderstorm. We follow Ha43 because EC often underestimates the mood in the night. In the course of Friday afternoon, the showers are increasingly limited to the (south) east by stabilising on approach to the (height) back.Attention

Wind
Above sea and in the western Wadden region signal southwest 7 Bft. Above land we saw some kn more wind during the day than in model exports. We expect that again today during the day, especially during clearances. In showers there are outliers of about 35 kn (65 km/h). In the middle and south we see about 40 kn winds at 850 hPa, but otherwise the profiles are fairly moist, so any wind blows should come from water loading and this exchange. The Ha43 output (eps) gives only very small chances at >75 km/h (code orange). It is also not very unstable in the lower layer, because there is quite a lot of wind and cloud. Code orange therefore seems very unlikely to us. During the evening and Friday the wind gradually subsides.

View
Outside precipitation good visibility. In precipitation moderate vision. At the heavier showers today during the day and at the convergence line on Friday local bad view.

Temperature
In day clearances about 1°C hotter than in output. With approx. 17°C it is today on the cool side for the time of the year.

Cloud
Cumuliform clouds with especially during the day many Cbs with peaks of FL250-300. We see the same thing on Friday at the convergence zone, elsewhere the number and the top altitude decrease. In the course of Friday of the west from falling peaks.

Precipitation
A lot of thunderstorms today. Although there is a chance of hail, we do not expect large hail due to limited instability (CAPE approx. 500, local to 1000 J/kg depending on amount of clearance). Especially in the east and southeast there is quite a lot of shear (30-35 kn), but little helicity and not too much CAPE in the lower layer. Multicell, locally aligned seems most likely now. A single shower with some short-term low-topd supercell characteristics is not excluded if there is interaction with an (outflow) boundary/convergence line which makes there a bit more vorticity near the ground. Although precipitation can occur in a short time (10-20 mm), large precipitation amounts are unlikely due to the high pull speed. The PW is also not particularly high in maritime polar air with about 20-25 mm. On Friday much less shaving (order 15-20 kn), so showers with low level of organization and probably no warning phenomena. However, in the night and early morning along the convergence line local precipitation can be quite high and there is also a chance of thunderstorm.

Synopsis
We are dealing with a south-west current on the flank of a complex and vast layer northwest of the British Isles, in which from time to time fronts pass. From the weekend onwards we see a rise in pressure from the Azores up to the southwest and central Europe. However, there is no clear ridge above the European continent and the large-scale high-trail seems to remain above the Atlantic. The result is a fragile setting where the high pressure remains mainly south of our environment and thus there remains room for the passage of (weak) fronts and troughs. The question is to what extent we are staying in polar air. Halfway next week we see in a small part of the ensemble the possibility for a descendant flow arise, when the belt of high pressure is located to the north.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Until Friday many clouds, showers and on the cool side. From Saturday we see, under the influence of the elongator of high pressure, the precipitation opportunities slightly decrease, to about 60%. Until the middle of next week, a (light) variable weather type with fairly normal temperatures seems likely. Then we see the probability of temperatures rising above normal to about 50%, with a cluster of 25% with summer/tropical temperatures in a descendant wind. The weather on a sunnier weather type is therefore clearly increasing and the precipitation opportunities decrease to about 30%. After Thursday, there is no significant wind left.

Multi-day Summary
Until Friday every day (thunderstorms) showers. From the weekend onwards, the chance of a shower is reduced but the clouds remain dominant. The midday temperature is around 19°C, about the long-term average.

EPS Period Summary
Reasonable probability (approximately 60%) of the transition to a dryer and sunnier weather type. Initially with temperatures around normal, later the risk of summer temperatures increases. There is also about 40% chance of a persistently volatile and cool weather type.

Valid from Friday 05 June to Wednesday 17 June