Synopsis
A high-pressure area above the Norwegian Sea has a ramp whose axis is above the west of our FIR. On the east side of this is the current north. In the next 48 hours, this is moving slowly towards Scandinavia, while the Azores are moving slowly towards the Bay of Biscay. Sunday during the day there is a connecting back between the two highs, whose axis is located northwest of our surroundings. The back axis thus remains more or less stationary, with the orientation gradually changing from north-south to north-east-southwest. As a result, the current gradually rotates from north to east, gradually leading to dryer continental air.

Model assessment
In the east SC is still present around 1000-1500 vt this is subject to subsidence solution. However, in both models this cloud is completely missed. The SC field from west to east in the center of our FIR is calculated by Har but not by EC. Har's getting this fixed pretty fast, possibly a little too soon. The north of the FIR may have a small risk of low clouds, a focus throughout the period. The models do not calculate fog for last night, given the temps are ground fog and in the north also a fog bank is not excluded.Attention

Wind
Current and tomorrow afternoon on the west coast and around the IJsselmeer a sea wind circulation.

View
Tonight in many places possible ground fog and in the north and perhaps also in the east local (shallow) fog banks, see also the model assessment. Fine.

Temperature
Tonight Harmony in the north has minima that are just above freezing point, EC is much warmer. Ha43 often estimates these kinds of situations better, so we include this in the expectation.

Cloud
The cloud base continues to Cu/Sc above 1500 vt, so a little later than Harmony shows. Above the sea, northwest of the Wadden, only low Sc, which will also gradually disappear. So attention is still the possibility of low clouds in the far north of the FIR later today and also Saturday. Saturday during the day the boundary layer is a lot dryer and above land goes the basis of ev. cumulative clouds to 3000-6000 vt (possible spread).

Precipitation
None.

Synopsis
On the ground a high pressure area of Norway travels southeast and another high through the Bay of Biscay to our country. At altitude this is accompanied by the development of a ridge from the Iberian Peninsula towards our environment. This ridge eventually becomes a separate center at altitude above our country. This keeps frontal systems at a distance. Until Thursday the high pressure determines our weather. Afterwards, the high pressure retreats towards Iceland and moves a low pressure area from Iceland to Scandinavia. As a result, a northern current is in motion in the Netherlands.

Model assessment and uncertainties
For the time being, almost all ensemble members do not calculate precipitation under the influence of high pressure areas. The temperature rises to values (space) above 20°C. This combined with a lot of sunshine and little wind, so the maximum temperatures may be slightly higher. This period seems to last a week. At the same time, attention should be paid to the altitude layer, which lies Wednesday 30 April and Thursday 1 May above Central Europe. Especially in Beek, precipitation rates are significantly higher than elsewhere in the country (30% compared to almost 0%). The atmosphere is then much more unstable and that could result in some rain and/or thunderstorms. After Thursday, the precipitation opportunities in the ensemble increase to about 40%. However, there is still considerable uncertainty over that period.

Multi-day Summary
Highly dry with increasing sunshine. The maximum temperatures are initially around 20°C, but there is something more every day and on Wednesday it can become summer warm in several places.

EPS Period Summary
Sunny periods, but also occasionally a shower. The probability of precipitation is low initially, but increases to about 40% at the end of the period. The temperature forecast is uncertain.

Valid from Sunday 27 April to Friday 09 May