Synopsis
A low-pressure area, originally a cold air development (CAD) located above the north of the FIR, will last night travel through the north coast towards the northwest of Germany, where it fills up during the day. The corresponding N-Z oriented cold front has already passed at altitude, but is still on the ground almost stationary above the extreme east (cold adhesive layer). This front is still somewhat recognizable by the western boundary of St and the transition from south to southwest winds. The structure above the boundary layer is unstable. The recessed occlusion of the CAD draws with the layer over the northern half of the FIR. An active peripheral disturbance (RACY), called Goretti, passes from the Atlantic Ocean through the Channel to the south of the Netherlands, where it arrives Friday morning. The associated heat front (theta-w 925 hPa = 7°C) reaches the southwest Thursday evening, quickly followed by the (inactive) cold front (Shapiro Keyser characteristics). In the late afternoon and evening, a weak occlusion (theta-w 925 hPa = 4°C) continues northeast. The cold front/heat front occludes above our country and wraps all around the layer. Friday during the day the layer pulls full and slow east over the southern half of the Netherlands to the middle of Germany. At the back of this layer, with a northeast current very cold air enters our country. The turned-in occlusion is still above our country on Saturday morning and slowly pulls in activity to the southeast.

Model assessment
The low clouds at the cold front are well picked up by the Har43 exports, in EC this is in Germany. In the Har43 export we see an area with mist/low St above the center of Belgium, possibly this part of the cold front that returns as a heat front. We see on the ground there a subtle back, so fog/stratus formation there is not excluded. The question is whether this will then extend north-east across the Netherlands. In the Harmonie Eps there is not much support for this, but it is a focus. EC exports have nothing to do with this, but in both models the boundary layer is very moist because of the melting snow. Another focus is the precipitation species in the far east, where currently the wet bulb temperature is around zero. Here, wet snow can still fall. The Har and EC exports make this disappear into Germany during the night. EC seems to be sending a very small signal for wet snow throughout the northern half in heavy showers, which we see very locally and very briefly in the observations. Because the peaks are getting lower and lower, the chance seems to decrease further tonight. At the Goretti layer, the exact course of the layer is important for the weather. In earlier runs it remained almost stationary above the middle for a while. In this (18 Z) output this does not seem to happen anymore. Above the middle of the Netherlands the precipitation in the geooccluded front passes into (wet) snow. About above the line Alkmaar-Twente this can lead to significant accumulation. In combination with a powerful (over the northern coastal area hard to stormy) wind there is a real chance of snow hunting and the formation of snow dunes. As a result, the chances of us scaling up to orange or red are great. The closed front leaves the north rather on Friday in EC exports than in Harmony which affects the amount of snow that falls there (5-10 cm, or possibly more than 15 cm). In the Har43 exports we see a signal for freezing rain at the occlusion in the north in a narrow band on the transition between rain/snow. The progtemps of Groningen also give a (subtle) melting layer underneath which is below zero in the lower 2000 vt. In EC we see that too, but there the ground temperature is just above zero. On the south flank of Goretti there is a lot of wind (heavy wind blows), but this seems to remain quite consistent in the model output (just) above Belgium. In the course of Friday we see more and more places where the rain passes into snow. However, the intensity is low. The far southeast (Limburg) is the closest to the low. There it could still snow for a long time, this is a focus.Attention

Wind
No more signals at the moment. Around the low Goretti a lot of wind, especially in the Limburg hills there is a chance of code yellow (>75 km/h, ca. 30-40% in the Har43/ECEPS). In the northern coastal area there is 8 Bft from an eastern direction (small chance of 9 Bft out of port). The EC-eps also gives reasonable chances for >90 km/h outliers in the Wadden region, in the Har43 eps this chance is very low. Also above land in the far north there is a lot of wind, in combination with the snow this may lead to snow hunting.

View
During snow bad views. Above the melting snow increasing probability of mist because the wind gradually subsides. The Har43 output lowers the St locally to deck, resulting in fog (see model assessment and cloud cover).

Temperature
The temperature is currently almost everywhere above zero, in a clearance it drops below zero last night (a little bit). Biggest chance of this in the south. Because of this, and because of snow residue smoothness. At the low Goretti we see behind the occluded front in the north the temperature in the EC-export rise to above zero. In the Har43 output, snowing remains below zero at a temperature, causing much more accumulation.

Cloud
Especially in the northeast St. Further possible St. from Belgium, this is a focus (see model assessment). Har43 lowers the base during the north-east migration over the Netherlands until deck. Further in the northern half a lot of convective clouds, Cb, peaks up to FL150, during the night the instability depth of the southwest decreases (Tcu). Further to the weak occlusion and the low Goretti much (low) St.

Precipitation
Tonight chance of wet snow in the far east, very small chance also elsewhere during a heavy shower. From the west, the odds of this going down fast tonight. The precipitation at the occluded front of Goretti starts as rain, but turns into (wet) snow in the middle. To the north of a line near Alkmaar-Twente significant quantities are possible (5-10 cm/6 hours), see model assessment. During the course of Friday, the precipitation, especially where it is still more active, is in more places in (wet) snow, where there can also be a snow cover elsewhere. However, the intensity is much lower (~1/3 cm per 6 hours). In Limburg there is a chance that this is higher (3-5 cm/6 hours) and the snow can continue for a long time (also on Saturday), this is a focus.

Synopsis
Storm layer "Goretti" is just east of our country and travels southeast. Very cold air is being brought from the northeast. After passage by Goretti, a high-pressure area over Scandinavia gets an extension over our country. After Sunday, this walker moves east. Above the Atlantic Ocean lies a number of low pressure areas that are gradually approaching. From Monday onwards, the frontal systems will run over our country and the cold will be reduced to the northeast. In the second half of next week, it travels south and can pass frontal systems. In addition, an altitude trench is approaching and softer air is brought in.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The run of 7 January 2026 12 UTC is slightly softer in the long run than the previous 2 runs. In the short term this run is still very cold with possibly locally very severe frost. Attention is the low temperature starting Saturday night. In many places it becomes -15 degrees (code yellow) for the feeling. PASCAL comes before Monday morning with 30% chance of feeling temperatures below -20 °C in the north of the country. Maintaining the frost is determined by how far the warm air of the south can force. In the opera, the temperature in De Bilt will not be above zero until next Thursday. The number of members that the frost continues is now 10-20% in De Bilt, to the north 20%. Other striking focus is the rather high chance of freezing on Wednesdays in the north of the country.

Multi-day Summary
On Saturday first snow and from the northeast flows very cold air. On Sunday probably dry, with morning and night before moderate to possibly very severe frost and during the day light to moderate frost. From Saturday night, the temperature drops to -15 to -20 degrees. From Monday it becomes less cold from the southwest and the chance of (winter) precipitation and freezing increases. Wednesday is especially likely to be freezing in the north.

EPS Period Summary
Variable and gradually rising temperatures. 20% chance of persistent frost.

Valid from Saturday 10 January to Thursday 22 January