Synopsis
A high-pressure area of the Atlantic Ocean has an extension via the British Islands towards Central Europe. On the north-east flank of the high, a north-west current leads maritime polar air. An inactive heat front belonging to a low pressure area over the Norwegian Sea grazed tonight and this morning north of the FIR. The associated (also inactive) NO-ZW-oriented cold front reaches the north of the FIR around 08 UTC and what's left of it is above the northeast of the FIR tonight. After that, the cold front is no longer recognizable. In the above-mentioned foothill of the Atlantic high, southwest of our country, a small center of high pressure has formed. This high has a back on the north flank and today it slowly moves east across the south of our country. After passage, the current in our focus area becomes southwest. A wavy frontal system south of Greenland draws southeast. Near Iceland there is a low pressure area and this draws towards the Norwegian southwest coast. On Saturday afternoon, the cold front reaches the north of the FIR and at the beginning of the night to the Wadden area.

Model assessment
The signal for light precipitation / light showers remains in the models. In the clouds from the North Sea there are some parts that are thicker and where some precipitation can fall out. In the northwest, the view went back. Only in the course of today is the clouds too thin to produce precipitation. In the east it remained cleared for a long time, cooled to 7°C and shallow fog arose. In the meantime, clouds over it again. In the night to Saturday it is cleared wide and in combination with barely wind and in the north some damper air (near cold front at sea) there are clear chances on some (ground) fog banks (TAFG 30-40%).Attention

Wind
This afternoon's sea breeze.

View
In drizzle moderate. First locally a small chance of mist or ground fog, in the night to Saturday in the north clearly greater chances of some shallow fog banks.

Temperature
This afternoon more sun and a little higher Tx than yesterday. In the south is local 25+ possible. Saturday in the southeast half over 25 degrees.

Cloud
Lots of Cu/Sc clouds, 1500-4000 vt with at sea here and there some fragments between 1000-1500 vt, usually peak around 6000 vt. After passage of the rugos, there is no supply from the North Sea and the clouds will dissolve largely, except for some Cu clouds. At the cold front at sea a small chance for some St. At the next cold front most Sc, local 1000-1500 vt.

Precipitation
From the Cu/Sc clouds until this morning, occasionally light coalescent stroke. Especially in the northwest, later in the north. In the course of today, dry. At the heat and cold front no precipitation of any significance. At the cold front of Saturday rain.

Synopsis
Between a low-pressure area near the Norwegian southwest coast and a high-pressure area above the Azores there is a weak wavy zonal current in which Sunday a.s. a peripheral failure with a frontal system pulls over our country. This is followed on Monday by a trekking back that belongs to a high pressure centre that travels from the Azores to Eastern Europe via France. A north-east-southwest-oriented high-trail southwest of Iceland goes southward and goes east. As a result, a southwest upper current is emerging in Western Europe. In the southern part of this altitude trench, a deep layer from Nova Scotia continues towards Portugal. At the end of next week, this low pressure area is heading towards Ireland, where it arrives around 1 August. On the east flank a thermal layer develops above France. It travels to the British Isles, with a fore that travels over the country overnight from south to north. The low pressure area continues to southern Norway. The altitude trench will continue to provide a southwest supply of warm and humid air to +240.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Three things will jump out in the next two weeks. First of all, the amount of rain that falls on Sunday. Compared to 3 runs ago, the probability of a minimum of 5 mm in De Bilt has decreased slightly. In any case, it will only be a small interruption of a persistent dry period, which is the second and most important focus. Until Thursday 6 August, the difference between the expected precipitation and the expected evaporation is more than 30 mm. This brings 2026 a little closer to the record year 1976, which during this period had a temporary flattening drought. Looking at the trend of successive runs, we still see that precipitation opportunities continue to decline in the longer term. This evaporation is expected to increase from mid-week due to rising temperatures and more sun. For the maximum temperatures we see an upward trend, where Thursday seems to be the hottest day with possibly 34-35°C in the south. The period of persistent heat begins Tuesday in the south, the middle and the east join a day later. The operational run is among the warmest members and early August among the least warm members. The distribution is large, with the median usually between 25°C and 30°C.

Multi-day Summary
Sunday pretty much clouds and rain with maximum temperatures around 23°C. From Tuesday transition to sunny and warm summer weather. Especially Thursday in the south-eastern half of the country a fairly high chance (60%) of temperatures above 30°C. In the south it can then be 32-35°C.

EPS Period Summary
Regular sunshine with low rain chances. The maximum temperatures are (clearly) above the long-term average, especially in the south potential for tropical values, although this risk is slowly decreasing.

Valid from Sunday 26 July to Friday 07 August