Synopsis
Storm Floris is currently above the Scottish Hebrides and today and next night travels through the North Sea to the south of Norway. Matching heat front reaches our coast during the afternoon. The NO-ZW-oriented cold front reaches the northwest coast around 18 UTC and then travels southeast across the country to leave the southeast around 03 UTC. After passage, maritime polar air is brought in again. Tuesday afternoon, a large-scale high-trail will lie above the North Sea, at the end of the day the trogas is just east of our area.

Model assessment
The main focus is the wind field associated with storm Floris. For the cold front out there is a chance of exceeding the wind impact criterion of 75 km/h, EC is slightly heavier than Ha43. In associated ensembles we see the same thing. For the time being, we expect it as wind gusts, possibly up to about 70 km/h. Then on Tuesday there is another chance of (heavy) wind blows in the northern coastal area in the showers caused by the cold upper air. The odds of this have decreased slightly compared to the previous runs.Attention

Wind
In the warm sector of Floris signals for ZW7 Bft, in the extreme north of the FIR 8 Bft. This is clearly displayed in Ha43 and we also assume. In terms of gusts we call off the west coast about 70 km/h. After passing the cold front only in the northern coastal districts still chance at 6 Bft, in the north of the FIR 7 Bft. The 6 Bft in the northern coastal area remains present all Tuesday. Tuesday as already mentioned in the northern coastal area again chance of wind blows of about 70-75 km/h in a heavier shower.

View
With passage of the cold front moderate and possibly also poor visibility. This also applies to the showers on Tuesday.

Temperature
Tx in the southeast local 25+. Tomorrow it'll be a few degrees cooler.

Cloud
On approach and passage from the heat front some Ac clouding. On the cold front a rather thick package of layered frontal clouds, possibly also with a narrow zone with St. Moreover, at the rear of the cold front, some embedded TCU/Cbs can also occur locally with tops up to FL100-150. After cold front passage in polar air again shallow convective clouds with Tuesday again some TCu/Cb's with peaks usually between FL100-180. Tuesday Cu and due to the altitude trench also Cbs above the northern FIR area (tops FL250-300) and north of the country (tops FL200-250). Southerner also some showers, peak there FL100-150.

Precipitation
In the north very local occasionally some light rain. On passage of the cold front rain and some embedded showers. Tuesday during the day, there is an increasing risk of showers in the northern FIR area, the Wadden region and the northern half of the country. CAPE 500-1000 J/kg above the northern half, above the sea a little more. Schering ca. 15 kn, multicell regime. Given the high altitude there is a chance of thunderstorm above the sea and the far north of the country.

Synopsis
An outskirts of the Azores is located above Western and Central Europe and builds up as a high pressure area above the continent. Low pressure, associated with a large altitude trench, is located well northwest of our environment. The current is due to this in our area west. Later in the week, we see a number of solutions in the ensemble where it will be high above the British Isles (including the operational run). On the other hand, we also see solutions with the center above our environment. This results in a considerable spread in the temperature forecast.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Precipitational chances are remarkably small throughout the period, at most 10-20%. This obviously has everything to do with the high pressure influence. As already mentioned, the spread in the temperature increases strongly from the weekend onwards. In most members (60-70%) the temperature is around or above normal. In addition, there is a chance of 30-40% at temperatures well above them (about 27-30 degrees). These are the solutions with the high above our environment. On the other hand, there is also a potential for temperatures that are slightly below normal (21-23 degrees). These are the solutions where it moves high to the British Isles and our surroundings are facing a north-west current.

Multi-day Summary
Highly dry and rising temperatures.

EPS Period Summary
High probability (70%) on predominantly dry and rather hot summer weather.

Valid from Wednesday 06 August to Monday 18 August