Synopsis
A low above the northern North Sea moves south of Scandinavia. The low-level NO-ZW frontal zone with a narrow warm sector travels southeast across our country and leaves the southeast tonight. A twisted occlusion grazes the north of the FIR. On Friday, another back builds up from the Azores high through the Channel towards the west of the FIR.

Model assessment
The main focus is the passage of the frontal zone. EC and Ha43 mainly calculate low SC, with Ha43 locally some ST. The progtemps also show drizzle, which could also form ST. Coming night a few light rain showers are calculated in the northeast of the FIR, this is hardly anything (water clouds).Attention

Wind
Near and behind the frontal zone west and later northwest 6 Bft, in the north of the FIR temporarily 7 Bft. In the northeast of the FIR, the 6 Bft can stand until Friday end of the morning.

View
At the frontal zone in drizzle poor visibility, otherwise good.

Temperature
Tx for today is already reached in the southeast (for the front out in the sun) and in the precipitation the temperature is below 20 degrees, to get back up in the clearances during the afternoon. Tomorrow Tx between 20°C (NW) and 25°C (ZO).

Cloud
A thick frontal cloud package with some St. Dispatched during the afternoon from the west. Especially in the northeast of the FIR until Friday in the morning some TCu with peaks FL070/80.

Precipitation
Next night and Friday morning in the northeast of the FIR a single light rain shower.

Synopsis
A steady high pressure area southwest of Ireland maintains a west to northwest current above our environment. Opposite is low pressure over Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea. At altitude we see a wide back just west of Ireland. Coming weekend (4/5 July) it gets a bit closer. Early next week, the low pressure northeast of our country will temporarily gain more influence and frontal zones can provide occasional rain. In the second half of next week, the amplitude of the Atlantic ridge increases. A new high then forms above our environment. At the end of the period, the pressure to the north and east of our country is likely to be relatively high.

Model assessment and uncertainties
High pressure influence dominates the coming period. Yet from Sunday to Tuesday we also see a stratiform precipitation signal on a wavy (heat) front that drags over our focus area. This will dampen the heat. Then we see the signal for a new heat period increasing from Thursday. Around Saturday 11 July we see the greatest potential for tropical heat: in the middle of the country a small 30% but in the southeast 40-50%. Then we also see the CAPE signal increase, but the daily probability of precipitation is still limited to about 20%.

Multi-day Summary
Occasionally sunshine and especially early next week also occasionally rain. The maximum temperatures are 23°C near the long-term average.

EPS Period Summary
High probability (70%) for a transition to a most dry weather type with lots of sun. The probability of temperatures above the long-term average is very high (about 90%), with in the southern half around 11 July a few days with 30-50% chance of tropical temperatures.

Valid from Saturday 04 July to Thursday 16 July