Synopsis
A low pressure area east of Iceland is moving northwards and gradually filling up. An accompanying wavy front lies tonight from Scandinavia, over Germany and Luxembourg towards France. A number of waves in the front tonight just southeast of our country northeast. This afternoon, a wave travels across the southeast of the country. Furthermore, there is a weak vore above the North Sea and during the day it moves east across the north of the country. Tonight, a high trench travels west of the FIR and night to Sunday across the country. Sunday during the day builds from the west from a high up on our land.

Model assessment
UWC0 gives the best weather for tonight. The fog is better in EC and already occurs locally. Possibly there are also some fragments of low SC or ST in the North Sea tonight. We should nowcast this, because UWC0 gives this, but this one currently has too high dew points for the North Sea and may be a bit exaggerated. In the night to Sunday OWC0 gave some turbulence stratus in an earlier run above land, which is now no longer displayed. However, in the southeast it is probably due to thrust ST. EC currently displays the precipitation at the wavy front and has the precipitation northwesterly than UWC0. We keep this image with the precipitation to East Brabant and Southeast Gelderland. There may also be a local shower due to sowing. Furthermore, there is a lot of uncertainty about showers that arise later in the afternoon and evening above the northeast of the country. The weak vore that ensures convergence, together with the upper air trench and a left exit of the jet, can make them liven up. The last runs of UWC0 show this and EC has this to a lesser extent. We'll give this a chance. These showers can possibly unpack locally and thunderstorm is also possible.Issues

Wind
In a shower in and near the high trench (in the northeast) there is a chance of wind gusts of 20-25 kn, possibly a little more locally.

Visibility
Tonight ground fog and shallow fog banks, see model comparison. Further good visibility, in precipitation moderate and locally possibly poor (in moderate shower).

Temperature
Maximum temperature in Limburg today strongly depends on the position of the wave. Harmony seems to be somewhat on the cold side (by large package layered clouds).

Cloud
See model assessment. At the golf top a thick package of layered clouds above FL200, including TCU's with tips slightly above FL100. These TCUs can also be seen a little further for the wave. In the north also TCUs with peaks up to approx. FL100, possibly FL120. Near the northeast altitude trench possible CBs with tops locally above FL200.

Precipitation
See model assessment. At the golf top stratiforme and convective precipitation. Something forward a single shower of sowing. Above the north today initially a single light shower, but in the evening in the northeast light to moderately isolated rain showers, possibly with thunderstorm. CAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 20-30 kn, gives multicell mode.

Synoptic development
Until Tuesday, a high-pressure area is located near our country. From Wednesday evening a short-legged mountain trench will be located near our country and also on the ground there will be a small layer near our country. On the weekend of August 3 and 4 a back of high air pressure builds up again above our country. As of Monday, August 5th, the back of high air pressure on the ground is likely to remain close to our country, but the chances of an altitude trench now and then passing increases.

Model assessment and uncertainties
There is uncertainty about the short-golden high trench with the base layer. Most members don't let it affect the weather until Friday and then the probability of precipitation is around 60%. On the weekend of 3 and 4 August, most members show a build-up of high air pressure and decreasing precipitation opportunities. From Monday 5 August most members give a back of high air pressure near our country. However, the position differs. If this is located a bit further south with a south-west flow of warm air to our country, but from the north a trough can sometimes pass. If the back is more north, less warm air is brought to our country, but also remains further away. This translates into a large spread in the temperature forecast (with maximum temperatures between 22° and 30°C). The back that lies near our country nevertheless ensures that the precipitation opportunities do not increase very far (up to 40%).

Multi-day Summary
Great periods of sunshine and warmer. At the end of the period chance of a single rain or thunderstorm.

EPS Period Summary
Sunny periods, but also chance of a single rain or thunderstorm. Maximum temperatures probably slightly above normal.

Valid from Sunday 28 July to Friday 09 August