Synopsis
A high pressure belt stretches from Scandinavia to our surroundings and slowly pulls east. There is still (very) cold air. An occlusion residue is above the southwest and dissolves. At the end of the day, an Atlantic low pressure area is just northwest of Scotland, and slowly continues northeast on Monday. Related N-Z oriented heat front reaches our country later in the evening and is followed by a heat front occlusion at a short distance. The occlusion leaves the east early in the morning. Just south-east of our country continues to drag the polar front and from time to time has some wave formation which means that the front sometimes reaches over the south-east of our country.

Model assessment
The main focus is the thaw attack that will be launched next night. The precipitation reaches the far southwest in the second half of the evening. Timing doesn't seem insecure. Models have been consistent since yesterday. In the southwest and a narrow strip along the west coast the precipitation will be rain, but a little further inland the precipitation becomes winters of character with an increasingly clear signal for freezing rain and according to EC also (wet) snow in the northeast. Both hypothermia rain and "normal" rain on a frozen road surface are possible. In both cases there is a high risk of dangerous smoothness. Strangely enough, the freezing signal in EC is small, while the progtemps indicate freezing rain. Once the cold has been expelled, we mainly have bad visibility and cloud conditions in the north/northeast where melting snow is still present. Probably not as bad as Ha43 gives because there is still some wind.Attention

Wind
On approach of the heat front strongly increasing south wind, 6-7 Bft along the coast and local 8 outgate, after passage of the occlusion decreasing to 6 Bft. No major differences between EC and Har43. Due to the landing wind no (code yellow) warning criteria are met.

View
Good eyes. In (winter) precipitation moderate possibly bad views. Monday during the day with the flow of warmer air over the melting snow it can become foggy or possibly foggy.

Temperature
Coming night from the west rising temperatures. In the southwest it is already above zero when the precipitation arrives, in the northeast this can take until the morning. In EC the temperature rises a little faster than in Har43. EC is often too fast, on the other hand Ha43 often too slow. For the type of precipitation and occurrence of smoothness this is a focus (see model assessment).

Cloud
Especially in the southwest still cloud fields because of the occlusion remains. This is currently more prominent than Ha43 indicates. EC's better on that. During the afternoon of the west from further increasing frontal clouds. Near the fronts also St. Behind the fronts especially above the north/northeast also St. comes above the melting snow.

Precipitation
At the heat front in the southwest and narrow strip in the west rain, going inland into freezing rain in the east possible eye short (wet) snow. Also at the lingering and wavy front over the southeast occasionally rain, especially in the afternoon and then later in the evening.

Synopsis
A low pressure area north of Scotland causes a south-west current in our environment. Pretty soft air is coming in. Then, on a large scale, there will be a high trench above the British Isles, disturbances can reach our country at regular intervals. However, due to the western position of the low pressure regions, the current remains predominantly southern. Later in the period (from 20 Jan onwards) there are some solutions in which the low pressure regions follow a slightly southern course with an eastern flow and supply of colder air.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The temperature is around or slightly above normal. There are few differences between the members until January 20th. It is also variable, daily precipitation opportunities are between 50 and 80%. Later this week the probability of precipitation is temporarily smaller, before getting back on the weekends when the low pressure areas get a bit closer. After January 20th we see a decrease in precipitation potential and a slightly increasing chance of landing colder air (30% chance).

Multi-day Summary
A lot of clouds and rain from time to time. The temperature is around or slightly above the long-term average.

EPS Period Summary
Variable and average temperatures.

Valid from Tuesday 13 January to Sunday 25 January