Synopsis
A W-O oriented heat front over the south of the country moves north and leaves our country next night. Our focus will then end up in the warm sector. The diffuse cold front will travel from west to east across the country tomorrow morning. At the same time, a more active wave from the Bay of Biscay is approaching tomorrow during the day. The associated cold front then moves in the night to Friday east across our country.

Model assessment
Despite the fact that the snow cover in Harmony is heavily exaggerated, this model with temperature, visibility and cloud base is certainly not bad. Actually better than EC. Maybe Ha43 tomorrow with the cloud base is a bit too low, but as an indication of the low clouds and bad views this model can be used. Attention are the bad views for tonight in the clearances (Ha43 gives fog what is already present) and tomorrow when the soft air flows over the cold water of the IJsselmeer and Waddenzee. In EC we will see the latter in particular.Attention

Wind
Tonight late and upcoming night and the following night a rising wind with a chance at 6-7 Bft.

View
In precipitation moderate and especially in drizzle bad. Tonight for the heat front from mist and/or mist. Deeper in the warm sector improving views, but above and especially on the lee side of the IJssel and Markermeer and Wadden Sea persistent chance of mist and fog.

Temperature
Tonight in the northern part a small chance of freezing still wet road sections, later tonight and next night rising temperatures.

Cloud
At the fronts St, near cold water surfaces on deck. At the diffuse cold front we see some secondary instability and then there possibly a hidden Cb.

Precipitation
Especially at the (weak) fronts rain, at the cold front possibly a bit bumpy. In the hot sector most dry, possibly some light drizzle.

Synopsis
On Friday 16 January there is a secondary layer above the British islands (along with a main west of Ireland) of which our country is in the warm sector. The secondary layer draws north (the main layer south) after which we come under the influence of a large high pressure area over Eastern Europe. This makes the flow northeast with supply of continental polar air. In the opera, a frontal system can graze our country on Tuesday 20 January with winter rainfall as a result, but in most members it remains dry.

Model assessment and uncertainties
The trend towards colder and dry weather is becoming increasingly apparent with a (large) majority of members calculating a north-east current. This starts from Sunday 18 January after which the precipitation rates are very low (10-20%) and the chance of frost in the night are quite high (around 60% in the Bilt) with from 24 January also 30-40% chance of (rural) ice days. These are probably clear nights, so the real decoupling is probably a little higher than in the model, which increases the risk of (moderate) frost in the night. What is even more striking is that from next week onwards, the Oper is one of the warmest members with a southeastern to even southern supply. At the end of the EPS, the operation also gives significant snowfall while a large majority of the members expect cold and dry weather.

Multi-day Summary
Overcast and rainy at first. Then dry, more sun and gradually falling temperatures.

EPS Period Summary
Dry, fairly sunny and cold weather with great chance of frost in the night.

Valid from Friday 16 January to Wednesday 28 January