Synopsis
A low-pressure area over Scotland is moving northeast to Scandinavia. An associated heat front (precedented by remnants of an old occlusion) is moving east over our country this afternoon. A wavy cold front lies tomorrow from Denmark to England and is slowly approaching. Friday night, this cold front can reach the north of our country. The front continues to drag there for some time to slowly move north again Saturday morning. Hot, unstable air above France pushes north on Saturday during the day and later manages to reach the southeast of our country.

Model assessment
For next night and night we see that EC gives a lot of clearances. HA43 lets the clouds dominate. Actually, we can see it clearing up in the warm sector. HA seems too gloomy, EC may be very optimistic. Coming night easily occurs in the humid air turbulence stratus. Above land in the clearance areas, above the sea possibly advative from The Channel, or along the coast it may create agv convergence. HA43 gives no or hardly any signal for St., EC a very clear signal. For the moment, we take into account some St, both above land and on the coast. Saturday afternoon and evening we see the instability in the southeast increase. That could be a heavy thunderstorm.Attention

Wind
In the warm sector almost certainly 6 Bft on the (southwest) coast.

View
In precipitation local moderate visibility, at the heat front moderate to poor visibility. Tomorrow morning, along the west coast, there's a risk of moderate, local bad visibility.

Temperature
We have been seeing for several days that HA43 underestimates the Tx when there is cloud. So we're following EC with a summer 25 degrees in the southeast tomorrow.

Cloud
Current clouds see a bit between EC and HA43. Probably will be tonight and next night. We take into account the formation of St above land and along the coast. possibly less extensive than EC shows. Improving cloud conditions tomorrow during the day. From the southwest out more and more clearings. The north remains sensitive to clouds because there the weak cold front will drag.

Precipitation
At the heat front some drizzle, in the hottest sector most dry. Dry Friday. Attention: In the night to Saturday the models always give a signal for a (thunderstorm) shower in the far southeast and above Belgium.

Synopsis
Until roughly Saturday 7 June, the dominant synoptic regime is NAO+. The resulting air pressure pattern is most similar to a slightly meandering zonal flow. In the period Monday 2 - Wednesday 4 June, most members of the House see a high trench sinking above the west of Europe, causing a more volatile episode. Then, in 2/3 of the Members, we already see a clear back up over the European continent. This ridge leads to a blocked flow pattern in most of the solution after 7 June, with a high degree of uncertainty about where high pressure comes to the ground.

Model assessment and uncertainties
Attention points may be strong convection on Saturday 31 May in a warm sector. Focus is still on the (outer) southeast. The last operational run (12 Z) is solid with a CAPE*SHEAR > 50 and a clear precipitation signal. The EFI CAPE*SHEAR also shows a band with quite high values that extends over Limburg. The uncertainty is considerable based on e.g. the EPS for LTFD (lightning flash density). There the probability of > 1 discharge per 100 km2 is only 30% for South Limburg and the highest odds lie far south. On Tuesday and Wednesday, precipitation is increasing, but precipitation levels are uncertain. This is largely due to the extent to which precipitation is convective in nature. The operational run is again solid, but in EPS the majority does not show too much precipitation. Then we see a decrease in precipitation rates (to 20-30%) daily under increasing pressure influence. This may be a thunderstorm, see EPS for CAPE. The uncertainty in the temperature forecast is high, the spread is enormous. The median for Tx is on average about 25 degrees. The chance of a heat wave from June 6 to the southeast is about 20-30%.

Multi-day Summary
From Friday periods with sunshine, usually dry and temperatures between 20 and 25 degrees. Saturday hot with in the southeast chance of heavy thunderstorms. From Tuesday temporarily more variable.

EPS Period Summary
Periods with sun and usually dry. The chance of a rain or thunderstorm is 20-30% daily. The temperature forecast is uncertain, but the probability of (very) hot weather increases to about 50% from June 6.

Valid from Saturday May 31 to Thursday June 12