Synopsis
A high level between Iceland and Scotland creates a northern current. A heat front (recognizable by fog and stratus) is above the far south (east) and will leave our country in the next few hours. A cold front (theta-w 925 hPa 7-8 °C) is currently located above the middle and south and also moves southwards. On Sunday, a northwest-southeast oriented elope of the high across the Netherlands moves south. In the night to Monday follows from the north from a weak frontal system, whose cold front is clearly recognizable (about theta-w 925 hPa 3°C). This one goes south and leaves our country at the end of Monday night. Behind this cold front we get into maritime polar air.

Model assessment
Actually there is still fog in the far southeast, these are good models. What they have less good is the timing of clearances in the northeast. These come in the models too early so the temperature is too early below zero and thus also the chance of slippery. In the Harmony-export tonight north of the (first) cold front a large fogfield arises. There is fog, but there seems to be a little less topical than Harmony thinks. However, there is a current fog there. This pulls Sunday morning on the south side of the foothill of the high west. The Pascal opportunities for fog are very high. Only in the south-west, directly on the coast and in the north-east coastal area the odds are less, in the south-west 10-50%. On the other hand, EC has fog again in the southwest. So it remains somewhat uncertain where exactly the fog will occur. On Sunday night, the fog field has to expand again due to cooling. Only under the SC cloud at the front system in the night to Monday will the fog of the north dissolve. On Monday Harmony shows some precipitation on the cold front, this is much less in EC.Attention

Wind
Harmony is useful. There is very little wind in the north during the day, which probably explains the low depth of the fog. During Monday afternoon N 6 Bft in the northern coastal districts and 7 Bft in the German Bight.

View
Sunday and night to Monday on a large scale fog.

Temperature
Actually, the temperature in both models is too low because there is more and thicker clouds than in the models. In the extreme northeast, the temperature begins to drop below freezing in clearances. Where there is fog on Sunday during the day, it will remain around freezing point, where no fog is clearly higher. In the night to Monday it freezes first on a large scale, but from the north it warms up due to the incident SC cloud.

Cloud
Actually almost everywhere SC, slowly moving south. In the far southeast St. on deck. Also in the fog field of Sunday during the day/Monday night St on deck. On the cold front of Monday TCUs, peaks 7000 vt / -7C, EC has much lower peaks and therefore gives hardly any precipitation. We're still assuming Harmony.

Precipitation
On the cold front of Monday during the day, Harmonie TCU-lootjes shows, EC hardly gives precipitation, but we assume Harmony (see also clouds).

Synopsis
A high-pressure area near Iceland has a back over our country towards south-eastern Europe. On the north-east flank there is a north-west flow of polar maritime air. A layer is moving to the Baltic States, which means that from New Year's Eve this current is pulling frontal disturbances across our country. In the rest of the period, little changes.

Model assessment and uncertainties
During the night to Monday 29 December it still freezes on a large scale. Due to the attracting wind and supply from the North Sea, it probably freezes in the nights thereafter only in the southeast. Precipitation opportunities are increased from New Year's Eve, with relatively large precipitation opportunities on New Year's Day and January 2 through a passing front. The precipitation can also have a winter character on 2 January. On January 1 and 2 it will blow a bit harder. Afterwards, the probability of precipitation decreases to about 40% and the chances of winter rainfall decreases. The direction of supply remains in the new year northwest, supported by a large majority of members, with temperatures around or just below normal.

Multi-day Summary
First chance of fog and frost in the night. Then rising temperatures, more wind and from New Year's Day cloudy and variable. The precipitation can sometimes have a winter character.

EPS Period Summary
Sustained changeable with a small chance of winter rainfall. Maximum temperatures are likely to be around the long-term average or just below with 20-30% risk of frost at night.

Valid from Monday 29 December to Saturday 10 January